Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Too Big To Fail?

Direct mail is still a very effective form of advertising (more so than newspapers)

UPDATE:  Question 5 passed by the narrowest of margin:  6,627 yes to 6,604 (or 50.09% of the vote), which will not be overly convincing to Town Meeting where it will require a 66.67% vote of support.

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The Select Board has called an unusual Thursday meeting to discuss the $67 million Mega School and react to today's vote, which I'm guessing will be No.

 Click to enlarge/read

The No folks showed far more enthusiasm, did better research, raised more money and simply outmaneuverd the phoned in old style campaign of the Yes folks.



An early large contribution allowed SASS to use direct mail which even in this digital age is still a powerful way to get the word out.

The Select Board should have taken Question 5 off the table when Superintendent Maria Geryk took her $300K and ran.

Although her chosen blueprint of (sort of) twin co-located schools grades 2-6 will never pass muster with a majority of parents and teachers who prefer two independent K-6 schools even if they are "co-located."

So what happens if Question 5 fails?  Town Meeting still has to vote on it and could conceivably still give it a two-thirds vote of support.  But then, that's about as likely as Donald Trump winning Amherst today.

And even if it narrowly passes today it still needs that hard to achieve two thirds vote of Town Meeting, and some members will argue the only reason it won today was because of the student voter turnout, which could easily be 30% or more of today's total.

You don't have to offer a Chinese Immersion program to appreciate the old saying, "May we live in interesting times."




38 comments:

Anonymous said...

what makes you think the "NO" vote will win. Everyone (largely parents of ARPS students) I talked to was planning on voting 'yes' (not me though). The big unknown is how will college students vote on this issue....

Larry Kelley said...

Everyone I talked to was planning on voting "No." So I guess it comes down to who you talked to.

And most everyone has a grandfather who smoked two packs of cigarettes per day and lived to be 99 (But how much longer would he have lived if he never smoked?).

Anonymous said...

Bet it's yes. UMass students will push it over from what I've heard talking to students I teach that did early voting. They are going to school. That makes most of them pro-school.

Larry Kelley said...

Yeah, and 99% of them will never pay property taxes to the town.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for posting Larry -- it is interesting to see a 5k donation from one person in support of No.

Larry Kelley said...

She also wrote a pretty effective Letter-To-Editor in the Gazette.

Anonymous said...

It's not a matter of whether the students will pay taxes, it's how they will vote today.

Larry Kelley said...

Yes and they are more likely to vote for something that sounds good and will not cost them a penny.

Anonymous said...

Yup. Should of been on the ballot in the spring rather than the fall. Big mistake.

Anonymous said...

I feel badly for the kids if this gets voted down.

Anonymous said...

It's even more likely that many students will only vote on the presidential race and the pot question. It's always interesting to see the blanks left in that precinct.

Jacqueline Bishop said...

I hear that Marks Meadow has been a "godsend" for future teachers enrolled at UMass. But who will they be teaching when all the taxpaying families in Amherst are forced out? Only so many teaching vacancies in the neighborhood K-8's in the "other", overrepresented bedroom communities. No long term discussion about declining enrollments, while more untaxed and transient faculty families are the only ones left to foot the bill (not).

Anonymous said...

And Republican Massachusetts Governor Charles Baker announced he did not vote for president. He left that blank. This is republican leadership. Same attitude we saw in congress for the past four years, do nothing republicans. Or should I say, do nothing but complain. Weak, Baker. Very Weak. Good luck next time you run for office. That I didn't vote tape will play your candidacy into the grave.

Anonymous said...

5:35 -- he era of the RINO is over.

If Trump wins, it will be like 1932 when FDR took over the Democrat party.

If the election is stolen, it will be a combination of 1824 & 1800.

Watch for Baker to be challenged from the right.

Anonymous said...

Isn't it amazing who's in agreement on this one "NO on 5"? LK and YF!

Logically yours,

- YF

Anonymous said...

Love it anon 6:44...either trump wins or the election was stolen. Good public education is so important and lead poisoning can be devastating!

Anonymous said...

I hope the issue they had with counting the folded ballots didn't cause any errors. How close does it have to be for a recount?

Larry Kelley said...

There will be a recount.

Anonymous said...

Baker is baked.

Anonymous said...

This was not the election to have this issue on the ballot.





Anonymous said...

Irony is that town meeting is now the firewall.

Anonymous said...

it will be good to see how the college vote affected the #5 question. My guess is that they carried it, which will be enough for TM members to use as a justification for voting it down (ie the majority of Amherst residents were not in favor of it). When do the pot stores open? Gonna need some (slash, a lot) in two months.

Dr. Ed said...

"Yeah, and 99% of them will never pay property taxes to the town."

Larry, you aren't that stupid.

When a business is taxed, whom do you think it passes those taxes on to?
When a landlord is taxed, whom do you think those property taxes are passed on to?

HINT: Can you say "RENT"?

Hence they give the money to the landlord, who then gives it to the town.

.....and the mistake was not explaining this to them.

Dr. Ed said...

One thing to think about in building schools is how UMass will fare under President Trump.

It won't do well.

Just sayin.....

Anonymous said...

Everyone I talked to was planning on voting "No."

I guess you don't talk to as representative a group of people as you thought.

Anonymous said...

If town meeting votes this down it will be the ultimate nail in the coffin for town meeting. Mayor and town council here we come!

Anonymous said...

"Everyone I talked to was planning on voting "No.""

If anything this election shows, it's that most people live in an echo chamber. They surround themselves with like-minded people.

Larry Kelley said...

Yeah ... the tired, the poor, the huddled masses yearning to breathe free.

Anonymous said...

Sadly, they will be yearning a lot longer.

Anonymous said...

With the election of trump we have given birth to the saddest chapter of American history...

Anonymous said...

Then I like sad.

Anonymous said...

Ed, UMass has thrived under Reagan and Bush, so it will be just fine under Trump. I know you spend your days wishing others ill, but you will have to get your kicks elsewhere. Have fun in your mother's basement.

Anonymous said...

Ed...is your mom's basement nice? Is there enough heat? Obviously she pays for Internet service for you? Does she let you upstairs? I assume the government pays for your health insurance. I hope You survive the trump years!

Dr. Ed said...

We shall see -- one of us is aware of Trump's Higher Ed policy.

And libelous personal attacks says more about you than me.

Anonymous said...

I love Trump! About time all the PC-BS ends. And, I am a well-educated, white, professional woman who resides in Amherst!

Anonymous said...

Who is this "bully" who continues to constantly pick on Ed?

Anonymous said...

23 vote lead growing. Now over 100 votes.

Anonymous said...

Ed it is only libel if it's not true...or mere opinion...and anon 3:54 (or ed) there are many more then one "bully"!